Accessing future crop yield and crop water productivity over the Heihe River basin in northwest China under a changing climate

Abstract Quantitative evaluation of the response crop yield and water productivity (CWP) to future climate change is important prevent or mitigate adverse effects change. This study made such an for agricultural land over Heihe River basin in northwest China. The ability 31 models simulating precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature was evaluated studied area, a multi-model ensemble employed. Using previously well-established Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), four major crops (corn, wheat, barley, spring canola-Polish) were simulated three time periods (2025–2049, 2050–2074, 2075–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). results revealed that impacts on CWP canola would all be negative, whereas impact corn eastern part middle reaches positive. On whole, RCP8.5 scenario more harmful crops, while Minle Shandan counties have better cope with